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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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