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Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market in the second half of this year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most shipowners if they are optimistic you will get a “yes...but...” reply.
On the dry bulk ship supply side (>20,000dwt), the world fleet has increased by 241 vessels year-on-year corresponding to a growth of about 2,4%, while one year earlier it was below 2%. Nonetheless, it's still a moderate fleet increase versus 4.4% percent real GDP growth of the emerging market and developing economies. For example, Bangladesh has 7.3% GDP Growth in 2019 and has also secured the top position in the world in achieving the highest GDP during the last 10 years.
The current dry bulk orderbook – not including slippage/cancellations – stands at 8.7% of the world fleet. Whilst there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2019, the orderbook is today merely bigger than what it was a year ago by about 50 vessels. Furthermore, we are amidst of environmental regulations coming into force, with water ballast management systems being retrofitted (or not) and the bunkers already transitioning to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap.
Compared to the same time last year we have about 80 more vessels over 20years old, and all the bulk carriers older than 20 years represent 9,5% of the dry bulk fleet.
On the tanker segment, things aren't less complicated. So far in 2019 there is less demolition activity, but also less new orders, while more ships have been delivered from the builders. The tanker fleet (>25,000dwt) has increased by about 3.5% led by MR tankers which increased by about 70 vessels, VLCCs followed with 55 vessels, 37 Aframaxes and just 15 Suezmaxes. The orderbook has not been replenished and is actually about 25% smaller than before, it represents about 7.7% of the trading fleet down from 10% same time last year. This rationalization of the orderbook, lays the foundation for a better future for the segment from the supply side alone.
On the other side of the equation for both dry and wet segments, there still is a growing demand for seaborne transportation. And while previously there were production disruptions, economic concerns, as well as political reasons that combined were suppressing the market, now there seems to be another combination that allows the freight rates to improve and drive the real demand for seaborne trade. The population continues to expand, emerging countries continue to absorb shipping goods and raw materials, so - still being the most fuel efficient and environmental friendly form of commercial transport – seaborne trade will continue to grow.
Although nobody can foresee if the current freight market is sustainable or not, the fundamentals suggest so, at least for the short term. We will continue to have supply disruptions, limited ordering and fleet expansion on the one side, and solid growth from the developing and emerging economies on the other. So, as we have many times argued that shipping is an infinite game and the objective of the players is to perpetuate the game, as we enter a new era with higher environmental awareness, it's a good entry point for investments and the upside is there as long as shipowners are patient and avoid overreactions.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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