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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
AlliedThe relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevailing topics as of late. From the start of this month the BDI has eased back to below 700bp and having recorded throughout this period an average of 624bp, there is little room for any bullish views to be portrayed at this point. 
 
According to Allied research analyst, Thomas Chasapis, the focus now, is as to what sort of contagion the recent trends are having on other parts of the dry bulk market.
 
Allied latest report says let’s have a quick look at the paper market, with its portrayal of a steep reverse in sentiment and the new market “standard” which is prevailing right now. In the Capesize segment the FFA 5TC-average index figure for the remaining 2019 is now roughly at US$ 11,200 pd, while just at the end of the previous year, the figure was in the region of US$ 16,304 pd, a decline of 31.3%. Taking the same comparison for the other main size segments, the trend is fairly similar. For the 4TC-average of the Panamax, the decline was 13.4%, for the 10TC-average for Supramaxes was 7.5%, and finally, the Handysize TC average had a downward correction of 10%. If these corrections seem “petty” (except maybe that of the Capesize), just imagine where these numbers would be if we hadn’t witnessed this last 2-week mini rally in the freight market for the Panamax (+16.3%), Supramax (+62.9%) and Handysize (+23.9%).
 
Thomas Chasapis  noted, many would argue that the FFA market is not the best reflection of forward sentiment for the actual freight market, with the argument being that a different set of drivers influence FFAs, some of which are not core fundamentals of the actual freight market. In any case, taking new-building activity as a secondary indicator as to forward sentiment the overall picture seems to be relatively the same. Looking at the past 3-months, total new contracting activity for the dry bulk segment as a whole in terms of tonnage capacity was 6.12MMdwt. While during the same period one year back, the equivalent figure was 13.1MMdwt, indicating a drop of 53.3%. Certainly, the main share in this decline is mostly attributed to the Capesize segment, which in fact truly has the most problematic and puzzling outlook for the time being. Notwithstanding this, even if we take as an assumption that most interested parties have already adopted a more conservative attitude, the slide in terms of new investments is still clearly apparent.
 
As a final key measure as to the prevailing forward sentiment we could also take a peek at what we have seen in the Sale & Purchase market as of late. In the year so far, we are a seeing a drop of 37.8% in terms of number of transactions taking place compared to the same period back in 2018, while in terms of total tonnage capacity this drop amplifies to 40.4%, also reflecting in part the shift in preference towards the smaller size segments. Moreover, if it wasn’t for the robust activity noted in the Panamax segment, nourished in part by the plethora of sales candidates circulated as of late in the market, we would be facing a significantly bigger drop. So, given that there isn’t the necessary optimism and/or appetite to push things further at this point, there is a general lack in confidence to push for any “bargain” hunting either. The correct description here therefore seems to be a that of a market in a “stand still”, something that may well prove to be more perilous than a market that has a clear direction even if that direction is one of a downward spiral.


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