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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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