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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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