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Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
 • The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, primarily driven by declining import demand from China.
• Australia’s export volumes are forecast to grow from 203 million tonnes in 2017–18 to 209 million tonnes in 2019–20, reflecting productivity improvements and modest production growth from new capacity.
• Australia’s thermal coal export earnings are forecast to reach a new record of $26 billion in 2018–19, up from a record $23 billion in 2017–18, driven by strong prices. Export earnings are then forecast to decline to $20 billion in 2019–20, as the impact of lower prices more than offsets rising export volumes.
Prices have declined on weak import demand from China
The Newcastle benchmark spot price (6000 kcal/kg net as received) averaged an estimated US$100 a tonne in the December quarter of 2018, a 13 per cent decline from the previous quarter, but 6.9 per cent higher year-on-year. Prices steadily declined to below US$100 a tonne in November, almost a 6-month low, primarily as a result of falling import demand from China, due to stronger domestic production and softening power demand in the period between summer and winter, said Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australia in Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018
The report further noted that, Chinese imports are expected to fall sharply in November and December on the back of tightened restrictions on coal imports, with reports that these may be extended through to the Chinese New Year period for some power utilities. The gap in prices for high and low quality coals narrowed in the December quarter, as the Newcastle benchmark price fell more sharply than the prices for lower quality coals. Nevertheless, the price difference remains at high levels compared to the last five years. The gap has been driven by growing demand for higher quality coal due to air quality concerns, particularly in east Asia, and lower supply of higher quality coal.
Thermal coal prices are forecast to drift lower due to softer demand
Commenting on thermal coal price forecast, Australia's Department of Industrysaid, the Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline over the next two years, from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$86 a tonne in 2019 and US$74 a tonne in 2020.
The Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY, April to March) contract price is forecast to settle at US$89 a tonne in 2019–20 and US$77 a tonne in 2020–21.
Thermal coal resources and Energy Quarterly December 2018 also noted that, the forecast decline in prices is driven primarily by an expected slowdown in import demand from China over the next two years. Ongoing policy changes to reduce emissions and dependency on coal in other major economies are also expected to weigh on demand and thus prices. Nevertheless, a lack of substantial investment in new thermal coal capacity is expected to put a floor under prices, which are forecast to remain well above the lows of 2015 and 2016. Despite the recent strength in prices, a range of factors have contributed to a slowdown in investment in Australia and the rest of the world, including difficulties attracting finance and uncertainty regarding future policy developments around the world.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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