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Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
 As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full of precarious scenarios and shrouded by excess uncertainty, say Allied shipping in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied's research team, over the past year it has become ever increasingly difficult to be able to determine where the new equilibrium in the market will form. Shipping is entering a new era of ever challenging conditions, whether it be by new regulations and the shifting trends they can foretell on the supply side of the market, or it be by the fast paced political and economic shifts which easily cause sharp shifts on the demand side. Of course it is of note to say that across all the main sectors of bulk shipping we have seen a level of stability for when it comes to their respective fleet growth and the level of newbuilding ordering taking place. This has for some time helped ease back concern amongst most in the industry and has even allowed in some case for a strong sense of optimism to be regained. Given that on average we are seeing an orderbook to fleet ratio of just fewer than 9% across the dry bulk sector and just under 10% in the tanker sector, it seems as though the equilibrium that seems to have been struck of late could well be here to stay. This argument goes even further once you take note that in most cases considerably less than half of those orders are for the coming year, meaning that we don’t anticipate any extravagant shift on the supply side of the market within 2019 said Allied.
The report further noted that, yet there may well be factors coming into play that could disturb this balance. The excessive levels of new regulations coming into force in the relative near-term could pose a risk and push an increasing number of ship owners onto the new-building front (given the ease by which a vessel could be set to comply in comparison to an already trading vessel which needs to be retrofitted). In most cases these new orders would not do much to disrupt the fleet balance in 2019, but would in effect lead to a disruption in asset values of already trading ships and could in essence be the cause for excessive market volatility before these new orders are even delivered.
Realistically however the main concern over the past 12 months has shifted towards the ever-increasing troubles seen on the demand side of things. Over the past couple of years we have seen ever more political turmoil unfold and “war lines” being drawn on international trade. This has intensified considerably over the past 8 months and does not look to be dissipating any time soon (despite the recent “truce” agreed between the US and China). What turns this all into a highly precarious environment for international shipping is that this trade tension is in its biggest part between the world’s two largest economies, while at the same time it has been their 20 year old trading relationship that has in its most part helped bring about some of the most affluent market conditions the shipping industry has ever seen. The part that makes all this shrouded in excess uncertainty is the fact that the decisions are not being made or executed with any business sense or strategy but in their most part are a political charades which come and go in the most unpredictable way.
Taking all these and more into account, Allied says we would like to close the year wishing to all our readers a happy holiday season and that the New Year finds them in good health and fortune and hopefully within a market shifting back towards clarity and sense rather than further instability and random shocks.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
- Allied shipping -
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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