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Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
 As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full of precarious scenarios and shrouded by excess uncertainty, say Allied shipping in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied's research team, over the past year it has become ever increasingly difficult to be able to determine where the new equilibrium in the market will form. Shipping is entering a new era of ever challenging conditions, whether it be by new regulations and the shifting trends they can foretell on the supply side of the market, or it be by the fast paced political and economic shifts which easily cause sharp shifts on the demand side. Of course it is of note to say that across all the main sectors of bulk shipping we have seen a level of stability for when it comes to their respective fleet growth and the level of newbuilding ordering taking place. This has for some time helped ease back concern amongst most in the industry and has even allowed in some case for a strong sense of optimism to be regained. Given that on average we are seeing an orderbook to fleet ratio of just fewer than 9% across the dry bulk sector and just under 10% in the tanker sector, it seems as though the equilibrium that seems to have been struck of late could well be here to stay. This argument goes even further once you take note that in most cases considerably less than half of those orders are for the coming year, meaning that we don’t anticipate any extravagant shift on the supply side of the market within 2019 said Allied.
The report further noted that, yet there may well be factors coming into play that could disturb this balance. The excessive levels of new regulations coming into force in the relative near-term could pose a risk and push an increasing number of ship owners onto the new-building front (given the ease by which a vessel could be set to comply in comparison to an already trading vessel which needs to be retrofitted). In most cases these new orders would not do much to disrupt the fleet balance in 2019, but would in effect lead to a disruption in asset values of already trading ships and could in essence be the cause for excessive market volatility before these new orders are even delivered.
Realistically however the main concern over the past 12 months has shifted towards the ever-increasing troubles seen on the demand side of things. Over the past couple of years we have seen ever more political turmoil unfold and “war lines” being drawn on international trade. This has intensified considerably over the past 8 months and does not look to be dissipating any time soon (despite the recent “truce” agreed between the US and China). What turns this all into a highly precarious environment for international shipping is that this trade tension is in its biggest part between the world’s two largest economies, while at the same time it has been their 20 year old trading relationship that has in its most part helped bring about some of the most affluent market conditions the shipping industry has ever seen. The part that makes all this shrouded in excess uncertainty is the fact that the decisions are not being made or executed with any business sense or strategy but in their most part are a political charades which come and go in the most unpredictable way.
Taking all these and more into account, Allied says we would like to close the year wishing to all our readers a happy holiday season and that the New Year finds them in good health and fortune and hopefully within a market shifting back towards clarity and sense rather than further instability and random shocks.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
- Allied shipping -
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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