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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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