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Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
 Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taking the BDI as a benchmark, we saw the index from a yearly average of 676 points in 2016, increasing to 1,149 points in 2017, and now reaching for the year so far 1,351 points.
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping, taking the size segments separately, Panamax and Supramax sectors were leading the herd this year, with their TCA yearly average figures boosted by -more or less-US$ 2,000/day (a relative increase of around 21%) and climbing well above the US$ 11,000/day mark. Furthermore, in the Handysize segment, we witnessed an increase of 13.5% on y-o-y basis, while in the Capesize segment the BCI-5TC improved by 8.6%.
At this point, it is important to mention that the rather mediocre increase in the Capesize market is impart influenced and a mere reflection of the hefty downturn and amassed disarray noted at the beginning of November (while not long before this, most seemed confident that they would see returns even in excess of those of the final quarter of 2017). Notwithstanding this, another way to better understand the “actual” path that dry bulk sector has been following, we need to evaluate the risks involved relative to the corresponding earnings. An important risk metric is by measuring the prevailing volatility in the market. Using the standard deviation as statistical tool to capture current trends, we can conclude that the overall dry bulk market has been more stable this year. In absolute terms, all main size segments saw their actual volatility figures decrease, with Handy size witnessing the biggest decrease (52.7%), followed by Panamax and Supramax with 41.5% and 37.9% respectively, and finally Capesize with 15.2%. While considering that actual returns were considerably higher, the real impact of these deviations is even less than the percentages mentioned above.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping further noted that, given the recovery and the overall positive track noted in the market, let’s try to figure out what’s in store for the near term. As at the start of this month, the total dry bulk fleet (above 20,000dwt) stood at 10,198 vessels, with an order book of 907 vessels (an order book to fleet ratio of 8.9%). Even with a completely absent recycling market and all projected deliveries entering active service without delay and as scheduled, we are a facing a maximum fleet growth of 5.3% for 2019. Moreover, given that most forecasts predict an increase in the region of 1.5-2.0% for seaborne trade of the main dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grains), the fundamentals in the market indicate a n overall balanced outlook for the supply-demand dynamic, in the short to medium-term at least, with potential for an even better outlook to emerge.
All-in-all, even with the core market fundamentals being in favor of further improvement for the next couple of years, the great uncertainties that characterize shipping industry as a whole leave little room for any excesses in sentiment. Optimism, with a pinch of conservatism, are the necessary characteristics to be able to better react and adapt to periodical trends and shifts. Coal’s overall gloomy outlook, China’s decision to retract its tariffs and commit to buy a large volume of US soybeans (even if it only represents roughly 4% of a typical year’s purchases) easing back some of the “tension” if only for the moment, along with a plethora of new regulations coming into force in the not so distant future, are just a handful of market aspects that could have a major impact, rapidly altering the state of the market. With a relatively positive year now coming to an end, let’s embrace a new one and hope for even better days to come.
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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