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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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