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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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