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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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