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Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of scrubbers and the benefits of alternative fuel usage. Aside from all of these, there is another reading to this new regulation. New oil products (ultra-low sulphur fuel oil) as well as the much larger quantities of MGO that will be needed from the shipping industry will reshape trade patterns around the globe. The first effect could well be depicted in crude oil trade due to shifts in refinery utilization, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in Allied latest weekly research report.
Specifically, demand for light sweet crude oil will move upward as it will be required from the non-upgraded refineries, while it is possible to see a negative trend in the demand for heavy sour grades. The second part is the need for redistribution of the low-sulphur fuels, in order to properly cover the global bunkering markets.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, a side-effect to this could well be the requirement for floating storage for both clean (building of inventories), as well as dirty products (storage of the excess heavy fuel oil produced). Demand for HSFO is projected to recover in the long-term, as scrubber-equipped ships will continue using it. However, given that the IMO expects around 3,800 vessels to be fitted with scrubbers by 2020, it looks as though these vessels will remain a relatively small percentage of the global fleet. Many refineries have proceeded with their investment plans, adding capacity in order to produce more middle distillates, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that an additional 7 million barrels per day will come into production by 2023.
However, Yiannis Vamvakas says, there are also several refineries that have not yet fully prepared for the IMO 2020 regulation, possible creating a shortfall of the required fuels in certain regions. All in all, the most modernized refineries with extensive vacuum resid processing capacity will benefit most from the new regulation, as they will be able to produce larger quantities of required fuels, gaining market share in the marine sector. Based on these facts, demand will increase in regions were the more modern refineries reside, modifying current trade routes. According to a Reuters survey, around 66% of 33 questioned refineries will continue produce HSFO in 2020, but 70% of these stated that they will reduce their output. A decline has already been reported in fuel oil inventories, depicting the fact that refineries have started to cut output in anticipation of the regulation. However, it’s worth mentioning that if output cuts prove to be bigger than the consumption fall, prices will see a significant upsurge. With regards to different geographical locations, most of the US refineries have been upgraded by the US shale boom, giving them a head start, but they are still dependent on heavy fuel imports, which is used for blending purposes. This means that further investments will be required for adding de-sulphurisation capacity.
In Europe, the report says, the coastal refineries are better prepared compared to their mainland peers, as their main oil source is crude from North and West Africa, regions with less sour oil. In Middle East and China, most of the refineries do not have the capacity of de-sulphurisation needed to produce the new low-sulphur fuels, making new investments necessary. In almost all cases a significant change is to take place in the shipping industry.
This change can be seen as a threat, an opportunity or as a combination of these two. The modification of crude oil/oil products trade flows should benefit owners and refineries that are flexible and adaptable enough for the new regulations, while it may be a significant threat for market participants that will choose to fall behind their competition Yiannis Vamvakas concluded in his latest report.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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