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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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