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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
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