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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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