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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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