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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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