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Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
 The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings says. Higher fuel costs and sulphur regulation will also put pressure on shippers. Partly offsetting an unfavourable environment are emerging signs of better capacity management by shipping companies, which is key to a sustainable balance and freight rates that support consistent profitability. We expect better fundamentals in container and dry bulk, while capacity growth will weigh on tankers. The key risk to shipping is an escalation of protectionist measures that would damage global trade and GDP growth.
Free global trade is vital for shipping development – about 80% of world trade in goods is carried by ships. More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase operating costs and capex requirements in all shipping segments. This may negatively affect financials unless shippers pass these costs to customers. However, the product tanker market may benefit from these regulations as seaborne trade of low sulphur fuel is likely to increase as a result.
We expect healthy, albeit slower volume growth, in 2019 in container shipping. But supply and demand should be more balanced as fewer new vessels come onto the market. This should provide support to freight rates. Container shipping has become more consolidated with top five players accounting for 63% of the market in 2018 compared to only 31% in 2000, which is beginning to help with coordinated capacity deployment.
We expect freight rates in dry bulk to remain flat on average in 2019 based on balanced volumes and net fleet growth of about 3%. Any escalation of global trade conflicts, especially between the US and China, could affect cargo flows, especially for grains and minor bulk. However, we see the risk of a material reduction of overall demand and rates to be low. This is because commodity trade flows are likely to shift, rather than stop. For example, Chinese tariffs on US grain imports caused an increase in South American exports to China, while US soybeans have been directed to European and Middle Eastern markets.
Potential overcapacity weighs on the tanker sector. We forecast net tanker capacity to grow at about 3%, up from about 1.5% in 2018. The sector may face downside risks from oil demand and supply. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts global oil consumption in 2019 to rise 1.4%, down slightly from a 1.5% increase in 2018. The impact of US sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports as well as OPEC’s decision on production volumes in December meeting are likely to affect oil supply and, as a result, demand for tankers
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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