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Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state of extreme bullishness to bearish in no time at all. Not long-ago, statements like robust sentiment, modest order-book, sustainable fleet development, robust global economic growth and seaborne trade were some of the favorites topics discussed by most optimists in the market, said Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied shipping in his latest report.
But now, given that the scene has changed completely, and the upward momentum has faded away, what can we expect from the blurry picture presented in front of us?
According to Thomas Chasapis, at the beginning of September, a mere breath before the start of the final quarter of 2018, the exuberance was become apparent in the paper market, given that contracts reached levels of even above US$ 26,000/day for the average of the BCI-5TC for 4th quarter period. At that time, and given that the previous year, for the same time frame, the actual market managed an average figure in the region of US$ 22,700/day and the market was already on an upward path throughout 2018, the level being discussed seemed rather fair to most.
He further noted that, things were already turning sour however in October, with earnings averaging out at US$ 18,600/day and it quickly becoming obvious that the Capesize segment wasn’t going to carry out its promise as originally thought. But things didn’t stop there, and from the start of this month the overall segment was on a sharp downward spiral, reaching even at levels that brought back memories of the collapse in the dry bulk sector of 2016. So, to the very least we can say that the market is in a “weird” state. The FFA market is now in a state of turmoil, showing steep corrections in respect to forward returns, even for very forward contracts. On a month-on-month basis, volatility for Capes has skyrocketed by almost 184% (using the BCI benchmark index), breaking a long period of convergence towards a more stable state.
Yet what must be stated is that it would be prudent not to rush back into an overly bearish tone, on the back of just recent trends in the dry bulk freight market. It is important to mention that other segments haven’t shows this kind of softening in their average figures. Both the Panamax and Supramax indices witnessed a decline of just below 14% in their mean on a month-on-month comparison. So, given the influential attribute of the Capesize to the overall sector, the impressive resistance seen in the smaller sub-segments can be translated in two different ways, either that there are strong fundamentals able to bear periodical negative shifts (i.e. minor bulk commodities are holding better), or we are speaking of an isolated and over exaggerated incident and the market will recover back to normality fairly quickly. For the time being the market is once again covered in shrouds of uncertainty, with most interested parties having already altered towards a more conservative attitude.
All-in-all, given that we are in a strong seasonal point in the year, we would expect that a swift recovery could take place, with the overall market, although, most probably finishing the year at mediocre levels given the extent of the downturn noticed these past weeks, Research Analyst of Allied shipping concluded.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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