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Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
 Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil prices over the past couple of months. With Iranian oil out of the picture for many of the main importers, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC countries have already started to gradually increase their output to cover the demand gap, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping.
However, he further noted that, these plans were disrupted by a footnote in these most recent sanctions, which stated that several countries (including China, India and Japan) are allowed to continue importing oil from Teheran for a limited time period, but without any specified limitation in the imported volume. It is worth mentioning that China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. This would essentially leave Iranian production levels to approximately 1.1 million bpd in November and to even higher figures in December. In addition to this, competition from other countries has intensified. Russia has raised its output during the previous months (11.41 million bpd in October), and with further growth being planned for 2019. At the same time, US production is expected to reach to 10.7 million bpd by the end of the year and is set to increase by another 250,000 bpd in 2019. As a result, Brent oil prices, which had reached a four-year high of $86 a barrel in October based on tight supply concerns, have slid back down to $67 now, losing around 21% within a month.
Allied weekly research report further said, with a supply glut on the horizon, Saudi Arabia is now considering proceeding, together with the rest of OPEC members, to an output cut of about 1.4 million bpd, even though Washington asserts that the provision of waivers is a temporary measure. Another interesting aspect of the Iranian sanctions is the possible decision by Teheran to maintain production numbers at high levels, even after the waiver program expires, and use some of the domestic VLCC fleet as floating storage. With a considerable portion of the Iranian tanker fleet out of the picture, market participants can expect a positive impact on the demand for the rest of global tanker fleet despite reports that there are already around 14 inactive Iranian VLCCs.
Moreover, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it is worth mentioning that the average haul should increase, adding further support for freight rates. China will turn its focus to other oil sources with West Africa and Brazil being most likely candidates, increasing the average ton-mile demand significantly. Other Far Eastern countries that are currently under the US waiver program will also change their import business partners with the US being an additional option. However, here we should mention that despite the continuing dredging that takes place in the US Gulf ports, fully loaded VLCCs are still unable to call the majority of ports there.
Freight rates in the crude oil market have already picked up over the past couple of weeks, with the Iranian sanctions being an important factor. Beyond this however, with the northern hemisphere enter into its winter period, the seasonal increases in oil demand that typically take place have also played a significant role in this most recent rally. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in their latest monthly report that its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 have remained unchanged from last month. With some volatility being anticipated due to uncertainty in the oil market, market participants are expecting the positive sentiment to continue for the rest of 2018, as well as the first quarter of 2019. However, with the rate of deliveries expected to be seen within 2019 this current upward momentum trend may well end up being curbed significantly in the long run.
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
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