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Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
 Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil prices over the past couple of months. With Iranian oil out of the picture for many of the main importers, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC countries have already started to gradually increase their output to cover the demand gap, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping.
However, he further noted that, these plans were disrupted by a footnote in these most recent sanctions, which stated that several countries (including China, India and Japan) are allowed to continue importing oil from Teheran for a limited time period, but without any specified limitation in the imported volume. It is worth mentioning that China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. This would essentially leave Iranian production levels to approximately 1.1 million bpd in November and to even higher figures in December. In addition to this, competition from other countries has intensified. Russia has raised its output during the previous months (11.41 million bpd in October), and with further growth being planned for 2019. At the same time, US production is expected to reach to 10.7 million bpd by the end of the year and is set to increase by another 250,000 bpd in 2019. As a result, Brent oil prices, which had reached a four-year high of $86 a barrel in October based on tight supply concerns, have slid back down to $67 now, losing around 21% within a month.
Allied weekly research report further said, with a supply glut on the horizon, Saudi Arabia is now considering proceeding, together with the rest of OPEC members, to an output cut of about 1.4 million bpd, even though Washington asserts that the provision of waivers is a temporary measure. Another interesting aspect of the Iranian sanctions is the possible decision by Teheran to maintain production numbers at high levels, even after the waiver program expires, and use some of the domestic VLCC fleet as floating storage. With a considerable portion of the Iranian tanker fleet out of the picture, market participants can expect a positive impact on the demand for the rest of global tanker fleet despite reports that there are already around 14 inactive Iranian VLCCs.
Moreover, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it is worth mentioning that the average haul should increase, adding further support for freight rates. China will turn its focus to other oil sources with West Africa and Brazil being most likely candidates, increasing the average ton-mile demand significantly. Other Far Eastern countries that are currently under the US waiver program will also change their import business partners with the US being an additional option. However, here we should mention that despite the continuing dredging that takes place in the US Gulf ports, fully loaded VLCCs are still unable to call the majority of ports there.
Freight rates in the crude oil market have already picked up over the past couple of weeks, with the Iranian sanctions being an important factor. Beyond this however, with the northern hemisphere enter into its winter period, the seasonal increases in oil demand that typically take place have also played a significant role in this most recent rally. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in their latest monthly report that its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 have remained unchanged from last month. With some volatility being anticipated due to uncertainty in the oil market, market participants are expecting the positive sentiment to continue for the rest of 2018, as well as the first quarter of 2019. However, with the rate of deliveries expected to be seen within 2019 this current upward momentum trend may well end up being curbed significantly in the long run.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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