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Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
 Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil prices over the past couple of months. With Iranian oil out of the picture for many of the main importers, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the OPEC countries have already started to gradually increase their output to cover the demand gap, said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping.
However, he further noted that, these plans were disrupted by a footnote in these most recent sanctions, which stated that several countries (including China, India and Japan) are allowed to continue importing oil from Teheran for a limited time period, but without any specified limitation in the imported volume. It is worth mentioning that China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil. This would essentially leave Iranian production levels to approximately 1.1 million bpd in November and to even higher figures in December. In addition to this, competition from other countries has intensified. Russia has raised its output during the previous months (11.41 million bpd in October), and with further growth being planned for 2019. At the same time, US production is expected to reach to 10.7 million bpd by the end of the year and is set to increase by another 250,000 bpd in 2019. As a result, Brent oil prices, which had reached a four-year high of $86 a barrel in October based on tight supply concerns, have slid back down to $67 now, losing around 21% within a month.
Allied weekly research report further said, with a supply glut on the horizon, Saudi Arabia is now considering proceeding, together with the rest of OPEC members, to an output cut of about 1.4 million bpd, even though Washington asserts that the provision of waivers is a temporary measure. Another interesting aspect of the Iranian sanctions is the possible decision by Teheran to maintain production numbers at high levels, even after the waiver program expires, and use some of the domestic VLCC fleet as floating storage. With a considerable portion of the Iranian tanker fleet out of the picture, market participants can expect a positive impact on the demand for the rest of global tanker fleet despite reports that there are already around 14 inactive Iranian VLCCs.
Moreover, Yiannis Vamvakas said, it is worth mentioning that the average haul should increase, adding further support for freight rates. China will turn its focus to other oil sources with West Africa and Brazil being most likely candidates, increasing the average ton-mile demand significantly. Other Far Eastern countries that are currently under the US waiver program will also change their import business partners with the US being an additional option. However, here we should mention that despite the continuing dredging that takes place in the US Gulf ports, fully loaded VLCCs are still unable to call the majority of ports there.
Freight rates in the crude oil market have already picked up over the past couple of weeks, with the Iranian sanctions being an important factor. Beyond this however, with the northern hemisphere enter into its winter period, the seasonal increases in oil demand that typically take place have also played a significant role in this most recent rally. The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) announced in their latest monthly report that its forecast for global demand growth for 2018 and 2019 have remained unchanged from last month. With some volatility being anticipated due to uncertainty in the oil market, market participants are expecting the positive sentiment to continue for the rest of 2018, as well as the first quarter of 2019. However, with the rate of deliveries expected to be seen within 2019 this current upward momentum trend may well end up being curbed significantly in the long run.
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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