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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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Showing 1306 to 1310 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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