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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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