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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 02 December 19
OPEC PREPS FOR OIL'S 2020 BALANCING ACT - WOOD MACKENZIE
What steps should OPEC and its non-OPEC partners take to keep the market in balance in 2020? Ahead of OPEC’s meeting in Vienna on 5 and 6 Dec ...
Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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