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Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
 In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia and the United States more than compensating for falls in production in Iran, Venezuela and elsewhere. New data show that the pace has accelerated, and this higher output, in combination with Iranian sanctions waivers issued by the US and steady demand growth, implies a stock build in 4Q18 of 0.7 mb/d. Already, OECD stocks have increased for four months in a row, with products back above the five-year average. In 1H19, based on our outlook for non-OPEC production and global demand, and assuming flat OPEC production (i.e. losses from Iran/Venezuela are offset by others), the implied stock build is currently 2 mb/d.
In the August edition of this Report we described the replacement of Iranian and Venezuelan barrels as “challenging”, and that there was a danger of prices rising too high too fast. Producers have heeded the warnings and more than met the challenge and today, the Big Three, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States, all see output at record levels. Total non-OPEC production in August, the latest month for which we have consolidated data, was 3.5 mb/d higher than a year ago, with the United States contributing an extraordinary 3.0 mb/d. Russia’s crude output has hit a new record of 11.4 mb/d, with companies suggesting that they could produce even more.
In early October, the price of Brent crude oil reached a four-year high above $86/bbl, reflecting the legitimate fears of market tightness. In our view, this was a dangerous “red zone” and it justified calls for producers to raise output. Today, the price has fallen to a more reasonable level close to $70/bbl, well below where it was in May before the US announced its change of policy on Iran. Lower prices are clearly a benefit to consumers, especially hard-pressed ones in developing countries that are suffering from the additional handicap of weak national currencies. For now, forecasts of oil demand growth remain solid with an increase of 1.3 mb/d this year and an increase to 1.4 mb/d in 2019, even though the macro-economic outlook is uncertain.
We should also recognise the interests of the producers. For many countries, even though their output might have increased, prices falling too far are unwelcome. Ministers from the Vienna Agreement countries will meet in early December, but we have already seen suggestions from leading producers that supply could be cut soon if customers, seeing ample supply, rising stocks, and slumping refining margins, request lower volumes.
Although the oil market appears to be more relaxed than it was a few weeks ago, and there might be a sense of “mission accomplished” that producers have met the challenge of replacing lost barrels, such is the volatility of events that rising stocks should be welcomed as a form of insurance, rather than a threat. The United States remains committed to reducing Iranian oil exports to zero from the 1.8 mb/d seen today; there are concerns as to the stability of production in Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela; and the tanker collision last week in Norwegian waters, although modest in impact, is another reminder of the vulnerability of the system to accidents.
The response to the call by the IEA and others to increase production is a reminder that the oil industry works best when it works together. Regular contacts between key players are essential in creating understanding, and even though oil diplomacy has succeeded so far this year, it needs to be maintained to ensure market stability.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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