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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
 In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fitted with scrubbers will represent only a tiny percentage of the world fleet, according to forecasts.
There are many estimates of how many ships will be fitted with scrubbers – as opposed to how many will opt for compliant, low-sulphur fuel – as the shipping, port and bunker industries anticipate the new sulphur cap regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
Scrubbers – the least-preferred option
Demand for scrubbers has increased strongly, and some charterers have started to demand that scrubbers be fitted on chartered ships, according to James Forsdyke, Hong Kong and Taiwan Area Manager for Marine and Offshore at independent risk-management organisation and classification society Lloyd’s Register.
But according to Lloyd’s Register, scrubbers will be the least-preferred option for shipowners to comply with the 2020 sulphur cap regulation.
“With 18 months to go, no matter the speed of uptake of scrubbers, it is a physical impossibility that it is going to be the main solution of the global trading fleet,” Forsdyke says.
“If every single dry dock fills up with ships now, and starts fitting scrubbers non-stop until 2020, the net result is still going to be a very small proportion. The people who have chosen scrubbers will be a minority on 1 January 2020,“ he adds.
Pick-up will not change fundamentals
Of about 90,000 ships currently classified as active in the world fleet, around 50,000-60,000 are internationally trading and fall under the new sulphur regulation. Recent figures (on 21 June) from Clarkson, the world’s largest shipbroking and integrated shipping services provider, estimate that just short of 600 scrubbers are currently installed. According to Forsdyke, an optimistic estimate would suggest that a maximum of 3,000 scrubbers will be installed by 2020.
“I think demand will continue to go up, but not enough to change the fundamentals of how the majority of the world fleet will choose to comply,” Forsdyke says.
Morgan Stanley: Soft scrubber uptake, despite attractive payback period
In a recent research report from US investment bank Morgan Stanley, scrubber uptake has been softer than expected, even with increasingly attractive payback periods on the investment.
“With the exception of cruise liners, which make up about 3% of bunker fuel demand, shippers have overwhelmingly expressed a preference for compliant fuels over installing scrubbers,” says Martijn Rats, Equity Analyst at Morgan Stanley.
“At current spot spreads, payback periods for scrubbers look very attractive and should fall further if prices move as we expect. But at a cost of up to $5 million per ship, installing a scrubber can be prohibitively expensive for an industry that has seen challenging financial conditions for several years and is facing additional costs associated with the IMO’s ballast water treatment rules,” Rats says.
The research report points to an estimate from marine and energy technology group Wartsila, which forecasts it will only be possible to install 2,000-3,000 scrubbers by the January 2020 deadline. Morgan Stanley’s Capital Goods team expect just 1,200 scrubbers to be installed by 2020, out of a fleet of 60,000 ships (commercial fleet), although the payback period on a scrubber could move to less than one year in the future, the report says.
By Mette Kronholm Fraende, Communications Manager at BIMCO
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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