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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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