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Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an extended period of oversupply. Things haven’t played out quite like that, and prices have staged a strong recovery.
The market may not be out of the woods yet, as supply builds up next year potentially putting some downward pressure on prices. But the outlook beyond is bullish, with 65 mmtpa of new supply needed to meet growing demand by 2025 – that’s 20 mmtpa more than we forecast a year ago.
How have things turned round so quickly?
Demand has been firmer. Low prices drew buyers into the market after Asian LNG prices fell 75% from the 2013 peak of US$17/mmbtu to US$4/mmbtu by 2016. China began a buying spree that hasn’t stopped, spurred by the Government’s initiative to improve air quality in its cities. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has hardened energy policy – European governments are accelerating a shift away from coal to the benefit of renewables as well as gas. A new and diverse breed of countries has joined the traditional LNG buyers, among them Pakistan, Bangladesh, Colombia, Jamaica and Panama. LNG has gone global in the downturn.
Europe emerges as key growth target for LNG suppliers
Delayed production startup at some new LNG projects has also diminished the feared oversupply. Future gas supply in Europe will be structurally reduced by the decline of Groningen. The Dutch field, a pillar of continental supply for over 50 years, is beset by earthquakes. Volumes will be cut to minimal levels in the early 2020s and cease in 2030. With Russian pipelines maxed out, even with modest demand growth Europe has emerged as a key growth target for LNG suppliers. The loss of Groningen alone accounts for half of the 20 mmtpa increase in our forecast 2025 supply gap.
As global LNG players gather in Barcelona for the big Gastech Conference September 17-20, things look brighter. Yet major challenges lie ahead for the industry, these three among them.
1. Bringing competitive new supply to market
Projects are jockeying for position including Mozambique Areas 1 (Anadarko) and 4 (Eni/ExxonMobil), Arctic LNG 2 (NOVATEK/Total), LNG Canada (Shell/Petronas), Qatar expansions (Qatargas) and a plethora of US sites. 2019 may be the biggest year ever for LNG project sanctions; 100 mmtpa of new capacity could reach FID in the next three years.
Project delivery and managing spend of up to US$200bn will be big tests following the difficulties of the last cycle. And with buyers unwilling to commit to long term contracts for all their needs, sellers have to take on more risk. The ‘new economics’ of LNG projects favours big, financially strong players – large resource holders, major portfolio players and, possibly, traders.
2. The inexorable rise of US supply democratising the LNG market
A fringe player a few years ago, US LNG will vie with Qatar to be the world’s biggest supplier by the mid-2020s. Cheap Permian and Marcellus gas create a competitive advantage versus many conventional projects. Some LNG contracts are already marketed as distinctly Henry Hub, influencing oil-linked LNG pricing. In time a quarter of all cargoes on the high seas will be Henry Hub-derived, FOB with no destination clauses. This will dramatically increase liquidity in LNG trading and the effect on global LNG pricing will be profound.
Gas hubs in the US and Europe have evolved over the decades to accommodate gas/oil competition and arbitrage between spark spreads and dark spreads. So too will Henry Hub be duly absorbed into the global pricing mix in European hubs and Asia. A global LNG marker price will emerge with Henry Hub a key determinant.
3. The need for sustained gas advocacy
Gas is presently winning market share from coal. But intensifying policy on energy efficiency, methane and carbon emissions, the growth of renewables, development of battery storage and new energy technologies all pose a threat. Gas cannot rest on its laurels as a bridging fuel for the energy transition. The industry needs to keep pressing the case for gas as the low carbon intensity option, and continue to build new markets by ensuring security of supply at a competitive cost.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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