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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Ratings says.
Market expectations of oversupply and weak gas prices have curtailed new investment activity in the sector in the past two years. Limited capacity additions beyond 2020 should be positive for spot prices, especially in Asia and Europe. This will benefit LNG projects with significant uncontracted volumes and those linked to gas spot prices.
An unprecedented wave of new projects becoming operational in 2016-2019 has not resulted in, and is unlikely to result in a material surplus in the LNG market in the medium term. Additional LNG volumes continue to find a home across a diverse array of countries and new buyers, and under more flexible contracts.
Funding for new LNG capacity is often structured as non-recourse project finance and is dependent on sponsors’ ability to secure long-term offtake agreements, which buyers have been less willing to sign in anticipation of larger volumes of uncontracted LNG coming to the market. Therefore, sponsors may need to commit a higher equity contribution to get funding for LNG projects, which will continue to delay final investment decisions (FIDs) for some time. A typical timeframe for a new LNG project to become operational following the FID is four to five years. Due to limited new FIDs very few new projects will come on stream in the early 2020s. FIDs in the next one to two years are likely to be limited to projects with lower capital and operating costs given constraints on the funding side.
We expect gas demand to continue its robust growth in the coming years, mostly driven by Asian markets that account for two-thirds of overall LNG demand. This is due a combination of healthy power demand growth in the region, natural gas being the fossil fuel of choice in pursuit of curbing air pollution, and the backlash against nuclear energy. Japan is currently the largest LNG importer, but China is catching up quickly and becoming the major market for LNG.
The LNG market could shift into deficit by 2022-2025. Gas pricing is therefore likely to improve in the major importer markets, benefiting LNG projects relying on spot and hub pricing and entities with significant LNG trading portfolios. We also expect oil companies to gradually return to their earlier LNG ambitions. This includes oil majors, like Shell, BP and Total, most of which emphasise the growing role of gas in the global energy mix.
The LNG market is still in its formative stage. Pricing mechanisms, contract terms and financing structures continue to evolve. Long-term oil-linked contracts are giving way to increased trading activity, which represented around a quarter of all new contracts in 2017, according to IGU World Gas LNG Report, compared to just 1% in 2012. New large LNG projects still rely on long-term contracts in order to secure financing. However, elsewhere contracts are becoming shorter, and the quality of counterparties is declining. Contract prices are increasingly de-linked from oil pricing with a growing focus on spot and hub-based gas pricing.
Fitch-rated rated LNG projects will not be significantly affected by the trend towards increasing commoditisation. In the US, rated projects, such as Cameron LNG and Sabine Pass, benefit from robust contractual frameworks that provide mitigation to completion risks and often employ tolling or tolling-like arrangements that protect cash flows from volume and price risks. RasGas in Qatar mostly relies on long-term oil-linked contracts.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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