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Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
 Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Ratings says.
Market expectations of oversupply and weak gas prices have curtailed new investment activity in the sector in the past two years. Limited capacity additions beyond 2020 should be positive for spot prices, especially in Asia and Europe. This will benefit LNG projects with significant uncontracted volumes and those linked to gas spot prices.
An unprecedented wave of new projects becoming operational in 2016-2019 has not resulted in, and is unlikely to result in a material surplus in the LNG market in the medium term. Additional LNG volumes continue to find a home across a diverse array of countries and new buyers, and under more flexible contracts.
Funding for new LNG capacity is often structured as non-recourse project finance and is dependent on sponsors’ ability to secure long-term offtake agreements, which buyers have been less willing to sign in anticipation of larger volumes of uncontracted LNG coming to the market. Therefore, sponsors may need to commit a higher equity contribution to get funding for LNG projects, which will continue to delay final investment decisions (FIDs) for some time. A typical timeframe for a new LNG project to become operational following the FID is four to five years. Due to limited new FIDs very few new projects will come on stream in the early 2020s. FIDs in the next one to two years are likely to be limited to projects with lower capital and operating costs given constraints on the funding side.
We expect gas demand to continue its robust growth in the coming years, mostly driven by Asian markets that account for two-thirds of overall LNG demand. This is due a combination of healthy power demand growth in the region, natural gas being the fossil fuel of choice in pursuit of curbing air pollution, and the backlash against nuclear energy. Japan is currently the largest LNG importer, but China is catching up quickly and becoming the major market for LNG.
The LNG market could shift into deficit by 2022-2025. Gas pricing is therefore likely to improve in the major importer markets, benefiting LNG projects relying on spot and hub pricing and entities with significant LNG trading portfolios. We also expect oil companies to gradually return to their earlier LNG ambitions. This includes oil majors, like Shell, BP and Total, most of which emphasise the growing role of gas in the global energy mix.
The LNG market is still in its formative stage. Pricing mechanisms, contract terms and financing structures continue to evolve. Long-term oil-linked contracts are giving way to increased trading activity, which represented around a quarter of all new contracts in 2017, according to IGU World Gas LNG Report, compared to just 1% in 2012. New large LNG projects still rely on long-term contracts in order to secure financing. However, elsewhere contracts are becoming shorter, and the quality of counterparties is declining. Contract prices are increasingly de-linked from oil pricing with a growing focus on spot and hub-based gas pricing.
Fitch-rated rated LNG projects will not be significantly affected by the trend towards increasing commoditisation. In the US, rated projects, such as Cameron LNG and Sabine Pass, benefit from robust contractual frameworks that provide mitigation to completion risks and often employ tolling or tolling-like arrangements that protect cash flows from volume and price risks. RasGas in Qatar mostly relies on long-term oil-linked contracts.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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