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Wednesday, 29 August 18
MID-YEAR FY19 POWER OUTLOOK: IMPORTED COAL REQUIREMENT TO INCREASE DURING REMAINING FY19: IND-RA
 India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has maintained a stable-to-negative outlook on the Indian power sector for the remaining FY19, despite a rise in electricity demand and an increase in short-term prices.
According to a post published on Ind-Ra's website, the stable-to-negative outlook continues to reflect Ind-Ra’s expectation of a continued low plant load factor of 60.0%-62.0% of coal-based thermal power plants over the rest of FY19, because of large capacity additions in the past five years and domestic coal availability challenges. Ind-Ra expects India’s dependence on thermal power generation to remain high in the absence of any substantial improvement in power generation from other sources.
The agency has maintained a Stable Outlook on most of its rated power sector entities for the rest of FY19, as the agency expects the entities to continue to manage fuel and counterparty risks on account of a favourable tariff mechanism, a comfortable liquidity position and support from central and state governments.
Ind-Ra expects the dependence on coal-based power generation to continue despite a likely increase in capacity addition in the renewable segment, as capacity addition is low on an equivalent thermal basis owing to the low plant load factor in the renewable segment.
Given Ind-Ra’s expectation of healthy power demand growth in the rest of FY19 and thermal power capacity contributing to the required growth, coal availability becomes a key determinant for required power demand growth. Considering the historical growth rate of domestic non-coking coal production and offtake, Ind-Ra estimates imported coal requirement to increase to 62.0 million tonnes in FY19 from 56.0 million tonnes in FY18 to meet incremental power generation. Hence, there could be higher imported coal usage in FY19 than that in FY16-FY18, when imported coal usage declined. According to Ind-Ra, in a scenario of lower-than-required growth in domestic coal output, short-term power prices would remain firm and are likely to be determined by the marginal cost of energy production undertaken using imported coal.
Ind-Ra estimates project internal rate of returns to decline to a single-digit level in view of the recent aggressive bidding for wind power projects. Ind-Ra believes a high un-hedged forex exposure from the depreciating Indian rupee further lowers projects’ internal rate of returns. Moreover, access to the banking system may tighten, in case bidding continues to remain aggressive.
Solicitation Disclosures
Ratings are not a recommendation or suggestion, directly or indirectly, to you or any other person, to buy, sell, make or hold any investment, loan or security or to undertake any investment strategy with respect to any investment, loan or security or any issuer. Please also refer Ind-Ra’s Disclaimer
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
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Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
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MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
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SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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