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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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