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Thursday, 16 August 18
OIL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS - OPEC
 Crude Oil Price Movements
In July, the OPEC Reference Basket increased marginally by 5¢ m-o-m to settle at $73.27/b. Oil futures saw mixed movement over the month, while US oil inventories continued to drain, particularly in Cushing,
Oklahoma. ICE Brent averaged 99¢ m-o-m lower at $74.95/b, while NYMEX WTI rose $3.26 m-o-m to $70.58/b. Year-to-date (y-t-d), ICE Brent is $19.53 higher at $71.72/b compared to the same period a year earlier, while NYMEX WTI climbed $16.70 to $66.20/b. The ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed by $4.25/b to $4.37/b in July. Speculative net long positions ended the month lower, particularly for ICE Brent.
The Dubai market backwardated structure eased again, while Brent flipped into contango for the remainder of the year. In the US, WTI backwardation increased significantly for the second successive month. Apart from the USGC costal grades, the global sour discount to sweet crudes increased due to a surplus of sour crudes.
World Economy
The global GDP growth forecast remains at 3.8% for 2018 and 3.6% for 2019, unchanged from the previous assessment. After a strong 2Q18, US growth was revised up by 0.1 pp in both 2018 and 2019, reaching 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Euro-zone growth slowed and the forecasts were revised down by 0.2 pp to 2% for 2018 and by 0.1 pp to 1.9% in 2019. Growth in Japan remains at 1.2% in 2018, and the same level is projected for 2019. India’s forecasts are unchanged at 7.3% for 2018 and 7.4% for 2019. After solid growth in 1H18, China’s growth forecast was revised up by 0.1 pp to now stand at 6.6% for 2018 and remains at 6.2% for 2019.
Growth in Brazil was revised down by 0.1 pp, reaching 1.6% in 2018, but a mild rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in 2019. Russia’s GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 1.8% in both 2018 and 2019.
World Oil Demand
In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.64 mb/d, 20 tb/d lower than last month’s projections, mainly due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in 2Q18. Total oil demand is anticipated to reach 98.83 mb/d. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.43 mb/d, also some 20 tb/d lower than last month’s assessment. Total world consumption is anticipated to reach 100.26 mb/d. The OECD region will contribute positively to oil demand growth, rising by 0.27 mb/d y-oy, yet with growth of 1.16 mb/d, non-OECD nations will account for the majority of growth expected.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 was revised up by 73 tb/d from the previous MOMR to average 59.62 mb/d, representing an increase of 2.08 mb/d y-o-y. The main reason for this upward revision was an adjustment for the Chinese supply forecast due to the higher-than-expected oil output in 1H18. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 is projected to reach an average of 61.75 mb/d, indicating an upward revision by 106 tb/d, mostly due to a re-assessment of the Chinese supply forecast for the next year. However, y-o-y growth was revised up by only 34 tb/d, to average 2.13 mb/d, owing to downward revisions in the US and Australian supply forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia and Malaysia are the main growth drivers; while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast remains subject to many uncertainties. OPEC NGL production in 2018 and 2019 is expected to grow by 0.12 mb/d and 0.11 mb/d to average 6.36 mb/d and 6.47 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 41 tb/d to average 32.32 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In July, US margins recorded solid losses as crack spreads for all products with the exception of fuel oil declined, due to weaker fundamentals and higher feedstock costs. Strong middle distillate stock builds and an all-time record breaking jet fuel output further pressured USGC refining margins. In Europe, product markets recorded moderate gains on the top and bottom of the barrel, supported by firm exports outweighing losses seen in the middle of the barrel. Meanwhile, product markets in Asia strengthened, supported by robust gasoline demand from India, lower fuel oil arrivals from Europe and lower crude prices, which led to reduced feedstock costs for refiners, while gasoil output in China hit new highs.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in July. This was mainly on the back of the continued weak trend persisting in the market across all classes. VLCC spot freight rates declined on all reported routes, while Suexmax spot freight rates remained flat, suffering from limited activity in general. Aframax saw mixed freight rates; however, average rates went down, pressured by the drop seen in the Caribbean and despite a firmer market in the Mediterranean. Clean tanker average spot freight rates declined as a result of lower freights West of Suez. Generally, the market remained uneventful, with limited demand on tonnage.
Stock Movements
Preliminary data for June showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 12.8 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,822 mb. This was 197 mb lower than seen during the same time one year ago, and 33 mb below the latest five-year average. However, OECD commercial oil stocks remain 251 mb above the January 2014 level. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell in June to stand at 58.8 days, which is 2.1 days lower than the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 32.9 mb/d, 0.6 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32 mb/d, around 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2018 level.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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