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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 Despite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing days lay ahead.
In the year to date earnings have followed much in line with the troubled levels that were being noted a year prior. The main difference was that this year we were starting to get “good vibes” as to the prospects of both trade and fleet development moving forward George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations in Allied shipping says in his latest weekly report.
In terms of trade, the steps that were slowly being taken by OPEC and Russia, namely to ramp up their production levels, were already starting to pay dividends on some routes. At the same time the Fracking revolution in the US has already helped shift trade patterns in such a way that each extra tonne of crude oil being shipped on average adds for considerably increase in tone-mile against what it would be adding a couple of years back. He further noted that, given that most of the foreseeable consumption growth is seemingly being generated from Far Eastern economies, the significance of this latter point gains further traction and weighting when looking at expectations of how trade will evolve moving forward. Just to put a few figures to mind, the Asian Pacific and African regions have shown a 31.1% and 32.1% increase in crude oil consumption over the past decade according to the latest figures provided by BP’s statistical review, while in comparison Europe and North America have shown a decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% during the same time frame.
According to George Lazaridis , in the case of the Asian Pacific region this growth rate is ever more significant given that the region now holds a 35.6% share of global crude oil consumption (Africa on the other hand still takes up a mere 4.2%) marking it close to on par with the combined share of 39.8% taken up by Europe and North America. The trend therefore seems to be ever more Eastbound for trade flow in this sector, while given that the US is now being poised as becoming a strong export player, the recent trend noted in terms of tonne-mile increases, is likely to further bolster over the coming years.
On the other side of the equation, we had been witnessing a relative improvement in the overall crude oil tanker fleet development over the past 6 months. The total fleet of crude oil tankers has decreased by around 0.4% during the first 6 months of the year, mainly thanks to the extensive ship recycling activity undertaken and the relatively “soft” newbuilding delivery schedule that was at hand. With this trend likely set to continue on for at least the near-term, especially in the case of newbuilding deliveries where things have eased off further, the freight market should find a relative balance even under the pessimistic scenario that we see a minimal growth rate emerge in terms of trade.
Given that there are still a fair number of indicators pointing to an improvement in trade volumes for the near term, there should in theory be reasonable room for a fair spike in freight rates to take place in the final quarter of the year. Granted that the recent trade disputes that have arisen between the US and China have dampened hopes by a certain degree, but the overall trend is still there and given that OPEC and Russia are still looking to be committed to their goal of increasing their production levels, this should help generate an ever-increasing flow of crude to the East.
At the same time, it is important to take note that there still seems to be a wave of new refinery capacity set to come online in China (Asia’s largest consumer) while it is important to note that the countries oil refinery throughput had risen by 8.2% y-o-y in May.
- George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, Allied Shipping -
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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken ...
Tuesday, 10 July 18
SUPPORTING SULPHUR 2020 CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION - IMO
An IMO working group is meeting (9-13 July) to develop guidelines to support the consistent implementation of the 0.50% limit for the sulphur conte ...
Monday, 09 July 18
RISING COAL PRICES LIFTING AUSTRALIA'S EXPORT REVENUES BUT INVESTORS STAYING AWAY - NEWCASTLE HERALD
Newcastle coal prices have risen more than 40 per cent in a year to be at their highest levels for seven years but the industry is becoming increas ...
Saturday, 07 July 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STRUGGLED; A 57K-DWT WAS REPORTED FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA AT $12K
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships that saw Atlantic rates soar, with the tonnage list tight prompting charterers to split cargoes, thoug ...
Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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