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Tuesday, 24 July 18
TANKER MARKET : IN TERMS OF TRADE, THE STEPS THAT WERE SLOWLY BEING TAKEN BY OPEC AND RUSSIA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
AlliedDespite the fact that the tanker market still seems to be in the midst of a perfect storm, there are still strong indicators that better sailing days lay ahead. 
 
In the year to date earnings have followed much in line with the troubled levels that were being noted a year prior. The main difference was that this year we were starting to get “good vibes” as to the prospects of both trade and fleet development moving forward George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations in Allied shipping says in his latest weekly report.
 
In terms of trade, the steps that were slowly being taken by OPEC and Russia, namely to ramp up their production levels, were already starting to pay dividends on some routes. At the same time the Fracking revolution in the US has already helped shift trade patterns in such a way that each extra tonne of crude oil being shipped on average adds for considerably increase in tone-mile against what it would be adding a couple of years back. He further noted that, given that most of the foreseeable consumption growth is seemingly being generated from Far Eastern economies, the significance of this latter point gains further traction and weighting when looking at expectations of how trade will evolve moving forward. Just to put a few figures to mind, the Asian Pacific and African regions have shown a 31.1% and 32.1% increase in crude oil consumption over the past decade according to the latest figures provided by BP’s statistical review, while in comparison Europe and North America have shown a decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% during the same time frame. 
 
According to George Lazaridis , in the case of the Asian Pacific region this growth rate is ever more significant given that the region now holds a 35.6% share of global crude oil consumption (Africa on the other hand still takes up a mere 4.2%) marking it close to on par with the combined share of 39.8% taken up by Europe and North America.  The trend therefore seems to be ever more Eastbound for trade flow in this sector, while given that the US is now being poised as becoming a strong export player, the recent trend noted in terms of tonne-mile increases, is likely to further bolster over the coming years. 
 
On the other side of the equation, we had been witnessing a relative improvement in the overall crude oil tanker fleet development over the past 6 months. The total fleet of crude oil tankers has decreased by around 0.4% during the first 6 months of the year, mainly thanks to the extensive ship recycling activity undertaken and the relatively “soft” newbuilding delivery schedule that was at hand. With this trend likely set to continue on for at least the near-term, especially in the case of newbuilding deliveries where things have eased off further, the freight market should find a relative balance even under the pessimistic scenario that we see a minimal growth rate emerge in terms of trade. 
 
Given that there are still a fair number of indicators pointing to an improvement in trade volumes for the near term, there should in theory be reasonable room for a fair spike in freight rates to take place in the final quarter of the year. Granted that the recent trade disputes that have arisen between the US and China have dampened hopes by a certain degree, but the overall trend is still there and given that OPEC and Russia are still looking to be committed to their goal of increasing their production levels, this should help generate an ever-increasing flow of crude to the East. 
 
At the same time, it is important to take note that there still seems to be a wave of new refinery capacity set to come online in China (Asia’s largest consumer) while it is important to note that the countries oil refinery throughput had risen by 8.2% y-o-y in May.
- George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, Allied Shipping - 


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