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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken effect today morning.
These recent tariffs are on USD 34 billion worth in imports on each side and have so far been imposed with minimal reactions from markets said George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping research in his latest weekly shipping research report. He further noted that, the biggest concern now being voiced is with regards to a further escalation in this trade war, with propositions for additional tariffs to be placed on a further USD 200 billion worth of goods. It looks as though the first stage in this heated trade dispute has passed with a relatively mild reaction from markets due in part to the fact that most had already been taking positions months in advance. As things stand now most economists place a limited likelihood on the potential of further escalation taking place, giving the possibility of the additional tariffs on USD 200 billion of imports a 40 per cent chance of materializing. Nevertheless, it is still worth considering the impact a further escalation would have given the comments being passed around of late. With the U.S. having already threatened of an escalation of tariffs on almost all Chinese imports and at the same time open further fronts on global car imports and NAFTA, many are now quoting a final figure of affected goods close to the USD 1 trillion mark. This figure, if reached, would be equivalent to just over a quarter of the US’s total trade with the world and around 6 percent of the total global trade in goods. That could be quite a bite and would surely have detrimental nock on effects on economic growth figures across the globe.
George Lazaridis further noted, this is however the worst-case scenario and most of us are still holding hope that things will subside much before we reach anywhere near this point. Given however the way things have developed so far, such an outcome is not entirely farfetched and outside the realm of what is possible. Considering how these increased costs would be passed on to business and final consumers, the negative affect they would have on demand is self-explanatory. The overall bit out of global growth may well be minimal at an initial stage, but when taking into account that the positive signs being seen over the past couple of years have also been more minor as well, this would lead to yet another off-balance point for the demand-supply balance in shipping. Obviously the first to feel the pinch would be containerships which had only just started to show signs of recovering, while bulk shipping would be quick to follow as the net effects take hold of the whole supply chain of the products impacted.
On the plus side, shipping is probably in its best form to deal with any of these negative scenarios, with shipping capacity growth having been curbed and not set to see any notable increases in the near future for most of the main sectors says George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping research. As an indicator of this it is worth pointing to the fact that the current dry bulk orderbook stands at 8.43% of the trading fleet in terms of number of vessels, a figure which can still be considered as one of the lowest noted historically. At the same time, even under these current favorable earning conditions being seen, the fleet has only increased by 1.15% over the past six months, while given the orderbook schedule for the remaining six months, there is not much expectation for this figure to increase by too much by the end of the year. If things do eventually turn south between the U.S. and its trading partners and tit-for-tat tariffs do take hold, this capped fleet growth rate could help sustain to a certain degree a relatively favorable market in terms of earnings, George Lazaridis concluded.
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Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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