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Tuesday, 10 July 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 The trade dispute saga continued over the past week, as new tariffs were put into force on Friday in both the U.S. and China and have already taken effect today morning.
These recent tariffs are on USD 34 billion worth in imports on each side and have so far been imposed with minimal reactions from markets said George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping research in his latest weekly shipping research report. He further noted that, the biggest concern now being voiced is with regards to a further escalation in this trade war, with propositions for additional tariffs to be placed on a further USD 200 billion worth of goods. It looks as though the first stage in this heated trade dispute has passed with a relatively mild reaction from markets due in part to the fact that most had already been taking positions months in advance. As things stand now most economists place a limited likelihood on the potential of further escalation taking place, giving the possibility of the additional tariffs on USD 200 billion of imports a 40 per cent chance of materializing. Nevertheless, it is still worth considering the impact a further escalation would have given the comments being passed around of late. With the U.S. having already threatened of an escalation of tariffs on almost all Chinese imports and at the same time open further fronts on global car imports and NAFTA, many are now quoting a final figure of affected goods close to the USD 1 trillion mark. This figure, if reached, would be equivalent to just over a quarter of the US’s total trade with the world and around 6 percent of the total global trade in goods. That could be quite a bite and would surely have detrimental nock on effects on economic growth figures across the globe.
George Lazaridis further noted, this is however the worst-case scenario and most of us are still holding hope that things will subside much before we reach anywhere near this point. Given however the way things have developed so far, such an outcome is not entirely farfetched and outside the realm of what is possible. Considering how these increased costs would be passed on to business and final consumers, the negative affect they would have on demand is self-explanatory. The overall bit out of global growth may well be minimal at an initial stage, but when taking into account that the positive signs being seen over the past couple of years have also been more minor as well, this would lead to yet another off-balance point for the demand-supply balance in shipping. Obviously the first to feel the pinch would be containerships which had only just started to show signs of recovering, while bulk shipping would be quick to follow as the net effects take hold of the whole supply chain of the products impacted.
On the plus side, shipping is probably in its best form to deal with any of these negative scenarios, with shipping capacity growth having been curbed and not set to see any notable increases in the near future for most of the main sectors says George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping research. As an indicator of this it is worth pointing to the fact that the current dry bulk orderbook stands at 8.43% of the trading fleet in terms of number of vessels, a figure which can still be considered as one of the lowest noted historically. At the same time, even under these current favorable earning conditions being seen, the fleet has only increased by 1.15% over the past six months, while given the orderbook schedule for the remaining six months, there is not much expectation for this figure to increase by too much by the end of the year. If things do eventually turn south between the U.S. and its trading partners and tit-for-tat tariffs do take hold, this capped fleet growth rate could help sustain to a certain degree a relatively favorable market in terms of earnings, George Lazaridis concluded.
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Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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