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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Tuesday, 27 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GERRY LATHROP
With the almost complete phase out of Tier II new-building slots on our door step, along with the plethora of emissions related articles seemingly ...
Friday, 23 March 18
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF HAIL CREEK AND VALERIA TO GLENCORE FOR $1.7 BILLION
Press Release: Rio Tinto has entered into a binding agreement with Glencore for the sale of its entire interests in the Hail Creek coal mine and th ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT UP IN 2017, FIRST GROWTH SINCE 2014 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose in 2017 due to rebounding demand and high-quality capacity, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 21 March 18
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
President’s Trump administration proposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in an attempt to target China and Europe among others. Earlie ...
Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of se ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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