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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 30 March 18
SHIPPING INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE HITS FOUR-YEAR HIGH - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping Confidence Survey
In February 2018, the average confidence level expressed by respondents was up from 6.2 in November 2017 t ...
Friday, 30 March 18
EXPLAINING POLAND'S COAL PARADOX - FORBES
In the U.S. coal is succumbing to market forces despite the Trump Administration’s push to support the industry. Abundant, cheap and cleaner ...
Friday, 30 March 18
THIESS SECURES $140M MT OWEN INCREASE
Thiess has secured a A$140 million increase to its contract with Glencore for coal mining services at Mt Owen in the Hunter Valley, Australia. Mt O ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
THIESS WINS $280M WAHANA EXTENSION
Thiess has been awarded a three-year $280 million contract extension at the Wahana coal mine in South Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to Thie ...
Wednesday, 28 March 18
RIO TINTO TO SELL KESTREL MINE FOR $2.25 BILLION - REUTERS
Rio Tinto sold its remaining coal asset Kestrel in Australia to private equity manager EMR Capital and Indonesia’s Adaro Energy Tbk for $2.25 ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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