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Tuesday, 24 April 18
IMO AIMS TO HALVE GLOBAL SHIPPING EMISSIONS - BUT WHAT WILL IT COST? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Global bunker fuel costs could rise by up to US$60 billion annually from 2020, in a full compliance scenario, when the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) 0.5 wt% sulphur cap for bunker fuels kicks in.
Fuel oil, which is high in sulphur content, has traditionally been used by the shipping industry as bunker fuel. In 2017, global demand for high-sulphur fuel oil stood at over 70% of overall bunker fuels.
With the implementation of the IMO regulation in 2020, shippers will have to consider a switch to alternative fuels, such as Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) or marine gas oil (MGO), or install scrubbers, a system that removes sulphur from exhaust gas emitted by bunkers.
Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a rate of return of between 20% and 50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships' fuel consumption. However, the penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by a number of factors, including access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity and dry-dock space.
Demand from the bunker fuels market will total about 5.3 million b/d in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie forecasts.
Based on pure ULSFO refinery streams, available ULSFO volumes in 2020 will total about 1.2 million b/d. This could be boosted by further blending ULSFO with vacuum gas oil (VGO) streams, but VGO is a valuable feedstock for the production of other lighter refinery products, and may not be readily available.
It is likely that MGO will help meet additional demand from the shipping sector. Wood Mackenzie estimates that this will see MGO demand rise by over 1 million b/d in 2020 in our base case outlook. Meeting this demand will require higher crude runs with residue upgrading units, particularly in the US and China, supporting an uplift in refining margins.
It also provides refiners, particularly in the US and China, the opportunity to capture the value of their ULSFO component streams and increase their share of the global bunker market.
Some refiners should see better profit margins as incremental demand for MGO rises, pushing up its price. Higher refining runs, required to meet additional MGO demand, could potentially push global gasoline market into surplus weakening gasoline prices. This could mean that the gasoline pain for some refiners could be more acute than the impact of weaker HSFO prices. Overall, we expect a material impact on refining economics post IMO and refiners must ensure they have a robust IMO strategy in place.
We also expect a shift in bunkering locations based on compliant fuels availability. Singapore, for example, could potentially lose some of its market share for bunker fuels to China as shippers look for alternative locations with a surplus of compliant fuels. China, with ample MGO supply, is well positioned to attract shippers.
New greenfield upgrading investments from refiners are unlikely to be purely driven by IMO regulation, and there is a need to look at longer-term rationale and strategic fit of these projects. Structural shifts in the fuel oil and gasoil markets may result in better economics, but that needs to be re-evaluated. For refiners choosing not to invest, the focus should be on infrastructure to capture the opportunity from their existing configuration and internal streams.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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