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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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