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Tuesday, 20 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 It has been a chilling start to the week for the global economy, with the vast majority of stock exchanges noting a fair drop, after a series of sell offs in the technology sector.
According to George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping, at the face of it, it may well sound as if this is something restricted to an industry which is disconnected in its most part from the shipping industry. However, in part these tremors being noted in the form of price drops in equities are tied in part to the overall friction being seen in global trade. It has been just over two weeks since US President Donald Trump announced import tariffs on steel and aluminum, and the geopolitical aftershocks are still being felt. The period just after the announcement seems to be mainly characterized by a number of countries, including but not limited to Australia, the European Union and Japan, pushing to win exemptions from these newly announced tariffs. Yet, things seem to be taking a darker tone now, with a number of these countries now vowing to act through reprisal levies and tariffs on US imports.
George Lazaridis further noted that, as an overall read-through, the main note that most of us in shipping have taken is that these current tariffs have a limited direct effect on shipping markets. China, which is the leading producer of both these commodities has a minute share in the overall imports entering the US, despite the fact that the US President has focused on China in his usual populist rhetoric with regards to trade. China’s exports of steel and aluminum to the US amount to only just 0.03% of its GDP, while it only makes up around 4% of total steel imports into the US. The biggest threat has been to the US market’s main suppliers, which are the European Union, Canada, S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil and Japan, with Canada and Mexico having for the moment escaped the current levies as part of the ongoing negotiations with regards to the NAFTA trade agreement.
George Lazaridis Allied noted that, the majority of the rest seem to be taking the option of retaliatory levies quite seriously, while despite China being relatively unaffected for the time being, they have also joined in the general discussion proactively, possibly taking this opportunity to proclaim themselves as defenders of free trade.
The risk of a wider trade war sparking off does lay in the realm of possibility right now, yet even if things were to escalate to such a level, the negative effects on shipping would most likely come in the form of gradual waves. Under such a scenario we would likely see most retaliatory tariffs and levies being placed on finished final goods, possibly causing a disturbance on the containership market first and limited to mainly this sector in the initial phase. It would take a while before we would see a gradual slump emerge on the demand for raw materials, as the overall slump in global demand for finished products would slowly push purchasing managers to cut back their requirements.
This all sounds like a dire scenario indeed and most would be in angst as to the actual probability of such a series of events pulling through, especially given that we have only just started to see a favourable environment emerge in terms of global trade. The general thought and hope for the time being is that to some degree the US President will back down having been brought to his senses in a similar fashion to how back in the early 2000’s George W Bush eventually backed down on his protectionist steel-tariff plan. Lets hope things aren’t taken too far too quickly and we miss the point of no return.
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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