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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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