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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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