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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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