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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
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Showing 1796 to 1800 news of total 6871 |
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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