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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 March 18
ANGLO AMERICAN COMPLETES SALE OF ESKOM-TIED THERMAL COAL OPERATIONS IN SOUTH AFRICA
Anglo American plc (“Anglo American”) confirms completion of the sale of its Eskom-tied domestic thermal coal operations in South Afric ...
Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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