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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 05 July 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS 74 MONTHS HIGH OF $104.65 A TON
COALspot.com: HBA keeps rising. According to latest ministerial decree No.1892 K/30/MEM/2018 dated 2 July 2018, the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ...
Wednesday, 04 July 18
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2 years tanker briefing in tanker asset prices
The tanker market is undoubtedly passing one of its’ roughest times over the la ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL, THE SECOND MAIN COMMODITY FOR CAPES, HAS BEEN SHOWING A REMARKABLE RISE IN TRADE VOLUMES IN THE YEAR SO FAR - THOMAS CHASAPIS
Having reached the mid-point in the year, it seems to be a good time to summarize the overall trends noted in the Dry Bulk sector and more specific ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market generally drifted and by mid-week dropped to what some felt was an artificially low level, only to bounce back at the end o ...
Tuesday, 03 July 18
COAL OVERTAKES IRON ORE IN GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AS AUSTRALIA'S LARGEST EXPORT FOR 2018-19 - MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA
Coal is forecast to be Australia’s largest export earner at $58.1 billion in 2018-19 with iron ore exports forecast to earn $57.7 billion in ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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