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Wednesday, 14 February 18
HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF? - IEA
 This month’s OMR is abbreviated to allow time for us to complete our annual five-year outlook that will be published in our report Oil 2018 on 5 March. Meanwhile, new and revised data shows a modest tightening of the balance in the early part of 2018, but the main message remains unchanged from last month and it is very clear: in 2018, fast rising production in non-OPEC countries, led by the US, is likely to grow by more than demand. For now, the upward momentum that drove the price of Brent crude oil to $70/bbl has stalled; partly due to investors taking profits, but also as part of the corrections we have seen recently in many markets. Most importantly, the underlying oil market fundamentals in the early part of 2018 look less supportive for prices.
Our demand growth estimate for 2017 remains strong at 1.6 mb/d, reinforced by November data for the US. For 2018, the more positive global economic picture published by the International Monetary Fund is a key factor in raising our growth outlook to 1.4 mb/d. It was thought that the significant increase in the dollar price of crude oil since the middle of 2017 would dampen growth, and this might be the case to some extent, but the impact of higher prices has been partly offset in some countries by currency appreciations.
It is clear that strong demand growth in 2017, alongside a modest increase last year in non-OPEC output, and the cuts made by leading producers, has contributed to the extraordinarily rapid fall in OECD oil stocks. A year ago, they were 264 mb above the five-year average and now they are only 52 mb in excess of it, with stocks of oil products actually below the benchmark. Although the OECD is not the whole world, the leading oil producers who agreed to cut output identified the level of the group’s stocks as an indicator of the progress of their initiative. With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.
The main factor is US oil production. In just three months to November, crude output increased by a colossal 846 kb/d, and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader. All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the US are in perfect alignment; rising prices leading, after a few months, to more drilling, more completions, more production, and more hedging. In early 2018, the situation is reminiscent of the first wave of US shale growth that, riding the tide of high oil prices in the early years of this decade, made big gains in terms of market share and eventually in 2014 forced a historic change of policy by leading producers. Today, having cut costs dramatically, US producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth. This is a sobering thought for other producers currently sitting on shut-in production capacity and facing a renewed challenge to their market share. Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the US to the UAE. Such a development would have seemed incredible a few years ago, now it looks like the shape of things to come.
The components of the oil market balance are dynamic and a lot can change in the next few months: the deteriorating situation in Venezuela is one obvious candidate, and the apparent buoyancy of the global economy could deliver higher demand growth than we currently anticipate. As a result, prices could be maintained at recent levels even as US production rises. If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 06 July 18
COAL PRICES HAVE REMAINED STRONG BUT ARE SET TO DECLINE - NAB
Coal spot prices have been highly volatile in recent years, with an upward trend since recent lows in April 2018, National Australia Bank says in i ...
Friday, 06 July 18
HOW FLEET SIZE, CORPORATE PROFILE AND STRATEGY ARE DECIDING FACTORS IN SELECTING AN APPROPRIATE FINANCING STRATEGY - PWC
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The challenges that shipping companies are facing when selecting an appropriate financing strategy during the current per ...
Friday, 06 July 18
INDIA: GOVT TO RELAX CURBS ON INDIAN FIRMS CHARTERING FOREIGN SHIPS - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Ministry of Shipping is clearly in reform mode. On the heels of the recent relaxation of the cabotage law, which allows foreign flag vessels to ...
Friday, 06 July 18
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE SPOT COAL PRICES HIT $120 FOR 1ST TIME SINCE 2012 - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices have broken through $120 per tonne for the first time since 2012, driven up by strong consumption in Asia and spot m ...
Thursday, 05 July 18
WHAT THE FAILED GLENCORE-TOHOKU COAL TALKS MEAN FOR THE MARKET - REUTERS
Electric utilities in Japan and other Asian countries are driving blind when it comes to coal prices after the failure of Japan’s Tohoku Elec ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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