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Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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