We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
.jpg) All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfortably as the world’s largest crude producer and to break its previous record of 10.7 Million bpd very soon, registered way back in 1970. Still the investment banks are moderating their previous estimates northwards. Recently JP Morgan estimated 2018 average oil price at USD 70 per barrel, which is approx. 50% higher than its estimates published just six months before. Goldman Sachs went one step ahead by forecasting the 2018 price at USD 80. These estimates are happening against the backdrop of known news of increased oil production from Kazakhstan and Nigeria offshore and ramp up in Libya and may be Venezuela in 2018. Also nobody expects that the winter across globe will be as cruel as in 2017.
In last article it was discussed that US, Russia, Saudi Arab have a good say in affecting the trend of oil price. They together produce appox 30 million bpd of oil against total world’s production of 80 million bpd i.e aprox 40%. Until 6-10 years before Saudi Arab was playing a pivot role in balancing the oil price as a swing producer.
As a swing supplier Saudi Arab was very much successful in limiting the price rise of crude upto good extent despite higher demand from both developed and developing economies. Now from demand side there seem to be no significant boost because of no extraordinary economic growth in China and India. Already the demands in developed countries like EU, Japan, South Korea etc except US are almost stagnant.
Now let us come to our subject line how higher oil price is the new reality in 2018. We are forgetting about a huge event that was missed in 2017 and set to happen in late 2018. It’s the world’s largest ever IPO of Saudi Aramco. For 5% disinvestment, Saudi Govt expects to earn more than USD 100 billion. Apart from income through IPO, the most important thing is the valuation of Saudia Aramco as a whole which will be calculated after IPO. US has also good existing interests in Saudi Aramco. Even investment bankers will earn directly as a stakeholder of IPO. Indirectly there is a golden opportunity to earn billions through derivative market of oil. As per recent report, hedge funds have increased their bullish position in oil, despite the fact that oil has reached the highest level of 2014. Net long positions have been raised across WTI, Brent, NYMEX, ICE, US gasoline etc. Now the ratio of hedge long position to short position has reached 11.5 against the same ratio of 1.5 in June 2017 i.e just few months back. It shows how bullish the market is but may be in hibernation show J . Last year it seems the said IPO was delayed just because the oil price was low (relative to expectation of Saudi Arab), though other reasons of no-decision of IPO subscription market place whther Newyork or london exchange were cited.
It is indeed a last opportunity in front of Saudi arab to earn billions just by selling a small stake in company. This is at a time when big economies like UK, France China have decided to go away from liquid fuel in transportation and industrial sector except petrochemicals (where refined products will be used as feed) by 2030-35. In 2008 when oil touched its peak, Saudi arab produced around 8.5 Million bpd. Lets imagine in case now Saudi Arab lowers its production to 8.5 mbpd or even lower, USD 100 per barerl is simply just a cakewalk for Oil.
Saudi Arab’s dynamic, modern-age and powerful crown prince Muhammad Bin Salman estimates the value of Saudi Aramco more than USD 2 Trillion, which is even more than GDP of almost all countries except 5 or 6. Saudi Arab may also try to disinvest more than 5% as an last attempt to have higher earnings. For that Oil need to be shown off to the outside world very bullish.
Therefore it may be concluded that Saudi Arab is in the process of cutting its oil production in a larger volume (against the official published figures) or will cut aggressively in future as against present rate just to ensure oil price is at higher side by the expected timeline of IPO i.e. Oct 2018. It also may have taken the investment bankers into confidence to ensure high over subscription of world’s largest ever IPO possible. The volume of long positions of hedge funds and money managers are probably just indication.
Just tried to put forward the thought on an idle weekend :) along with logic. Lets See what actually happens finally by dawn of 2019 :).
Saroj Mohapatra
DGM - Marketing and Contracts at H-Energy Group Of Companies
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
|
|
|
Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
|
| |
| |
|
